Learn about economic conditions, key indicators like GDP and inflation, and their impact on investments. Explore strategies for navigating economic cycles effectively.

Seeking Alpha article used statistical approach to estimate S&P 500 P/E market multiple based on macroeconomic variables. Treasury yield and federal spending to GDP ratio are significant variables ...

History suggests that elevated values of the cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio may indicate an overvalued stock market. A valuation model that uses a small set of economic variables can ...

Following the emergence of money velocity accelerators (CDOs and CPDOs), we have been insisting ad nauseam about the importance of credit as a macroeconomic variable, as in the spirit of the Financial ...

This paper investigates the relation between housing starts and macroeconomic variables in Turkey from 1961 to 2000. The generalized variance decomposition approach is used to examine relations ...

Investopedia contributors come from a range of backgrounds, and over 25 years there have been thousands of expert writers and editors who have contributed. Somer G. Anderson is CPA, doctor of ...

Download PDF More Formats on IMF eLibrary Order a Print Copy Create Citation In recent years, term premia have been very low and sometimes even negative. Now, with the United States economy growing ...

Investors’ demand for safe assets tends to increase when there’s more uncertainty, as in recessions. Consistent with this idea, short-term movements in the natural rate of interest, or r-star, are ...

The study departs from conventional mean-based economic forecasting by focusing on quantile prediction, a technique that ...

In this speech, I will lay out a path to modeling macrofinancial dynamics using a recent approach that I have worked on, and illustrate the usefulness of this avenue with a term structure application.

The German economy will grow slightly in the final quarter of 2025, according to an indicator of the Macroeconomic Policy ...