In the wide-ranging conversation, President Daly discussed the major factors shaping the U.S. economy, how the Federal ...

The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles. The index is described in Buckman, Shapiro, Sudhof, and ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. This site presents a weekly and monthly series of the proxy funds rate, following Doh and Choi (2016), Choi, Doh, Foerster, and Martinez ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. Zero Lower Bound Probabilities at Different Time Horizons is a daily measure of the likelihood that future short-term interest rates will ...

The natural rate of interest is an elusive concept in theory and practice. However, it is essential for central banks’ ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District edged down slightly during the mid-August to September reporting period. Employment ...

The Congressional Budget Office recently raised its demographic projections for net U.S. immigration. Most of the increase in the projections came from undocumented immigrants. Updating the CBO ...

The unemployment rate has risen over half a percentage point since the second quarter of 2023. Individual survey data underlying the unemployment rate can help in assessing which labor market ...

Employment growth has consistently come in above pre-pandemic estimates of the rate needed for unemployment to stay near its long-run natural rate. Even so, unemployment has held steady, which raises ...

A decade after the last financial crisis and recession, the U.S. economy remains significantly smaller than it should be based on its pre-crisis growth trend. One possible reason lies in the large ...

The extent to which either supply or demand factors drive inflation has important implications for economic policy. I propose a framework to decompose inflation into supply- and demand-driven ...

Labor force participation among U.S. men and women ages 25 to 54 has been declining for nearly 20 years, a stark contrast with rising participation in Canada over this period. Three-fourths of the ...