In the wide-ranging conversation, President Daly discussed the major factors shaping the U.S. economy, how the Federal ...

The natural rate of interest is an elusive concept in theory and practice. However, it is essential for central banks’ ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District edged down slightly during the mid-August to September reporting period. Employment ...

Financial markets repriced assets across a wide range of sectors following the U.S. trade policy announcement on April 2, 2025. Analysis suggests that market participants interpreted tariffs to have ...

A timely and accurate assessment of labor market conditions is essential for policymakers and market participants. Our SF Fed Blog by Òscar Jordà and Sanjay Singh introduces our weekly Labor Market ...

Bootstrap procedures for local projections typically rely on assuming that the data generating process (DGP) is a finite order vector autoregression (VAR), often taken to be that implied by the local ...

We explore the evolving significance of different production sectors within the U.S. economy since World War II and provide methods for estimating and forecasting these shifts. Using a compositional ...

Motivated by behavioral evidence, we develop a tractable method for incorporating competition neglect in a general equilibrium firm investment problem. Competition neglect causes firms to ...

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) has rapidly emerged as a potentially important workplace technology. In an earlier blog post, we discussed results from the first nationally representative U.S.

“For me, relaxing the policy rate to make sure it continues to be modestly restrictive — but not so restrictive that it unnecessarily disrupts the labor market — would be the path of policy. We have ...

“I do want to caution us against thinking all bubbles are financial. I don’t see many signs that that’s the case. Research and economics call it more like a good bubble, where you’re getting a ton of ...